| A GIS-based physical and social seismic vulnerability assessment method emphasizing on modelling uncertainties, Case study: Tabriz City |
| Paper ID : 1225-SMPR |
| Authors: |
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Mansoureh Sadrykia *1, Mahmoud Reza Delavar2 1Geomatics Eng. Department, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran 2Center of Excellent in Geospatial Engineering in Disaster Management, School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering., College of Engineering., University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. |
| Abstract: |
| Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters which threaten many lives every year. It is impossible to prevent earthquakes from occurring; but it is possible to predict the human and property losses in advance, to mitigate the adverse effects of the catastrophe. However, seismic vulnerability assessment is a complex uncertain spatial decision making problem due to intrinsic uncertainties such as lack of complete data, vagueness of experts’ comments and uncertainties in the numerical data/relations. The developed method uses Fuzzy Sets Theory to model the vagueness on ‘weights of the selected criteria’ and ‘relationships of the criteria with buildings damages’, Dempster-Shafer Theory is used for dealing with incompleteness of data. Since fusion is a solution to obtain more reliable results in case uncertain and incomplete data exist, Dempster combination rule is suggested to combine independent information on the vulnerability of buildings providing decreased uncertainty of the results. The proposed method’s applicability is tested on existing buildings of a municipality district of Tabriz, a historical, earthquake prone city in Iran. Physical seismic vulnerability maps are produced representing the distribution and severity of the estimated damages to the buildings. The number of injured and killed people is estimated based on the information on the assessed buildings damages. It can be concluded that this paper contributes to a pragmatic and rational modelling of physical and social vulnerability in earthquake prone areas with incomplete data, providing necessary information for urban planners and administrators to reduce earthquake losses through disaster mitigation and preparedness plans. |
| Keywords: |
| seismic vulnerability assessment, uncertainty, earthquake, GIS, mitigation and preparedness |
| Status : Conditional Accept (Poster) |
