| UTILISATION OF MLP AND CANESM2 MODELS FOR MODELLING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON VEGETATION COVER OF NORTHEASTERN RANGELANDS (SARALIABAD, IRAN) |
| Paper ID : 1188-SMPR |
| Authors: |
|
DIANA ASKARIZADEH * PhD in Rangeland Sciences
Department of Arid and Mountains Regions Reclamation
Faculty of Natural Resources
College of Agriculture & Natural Resources,
University of Tehran, Iran. |
| Abstract: |
| Knowledge of how climate change is likely to impact on rangeland ecosystems is important for the managers. Upland rangelands in the northeastern Alborz Mountains (SarAliabad) was selected as a study area. Long-term climate data (1986-2016) from the closest synoptic stations were used to evaluate the climate changes and modified to anticipate future climates with the help of climate-change scenarios derived from the CanESM2 model. A statistical model was used to downscale these scenarios from the coarse grid resolution of the climate models. A field dataset of vegetation composition at the area was collected in June 2016. Values of the NDVI were obtained from Landsat imagery. The Multi-Layer Perceptron model was used to project forward vegetation cover changes for three time periods. The vegetation cover percentage was predicted to decline (12 to 26%) for the three periods in compare to 2016 at the site. Moreover, the RCP8.5 has the highest differentiation to 2016. Climate change has already started in the study area and will be more intense in the future, the changes being in the direction of declining vegetation cover. |
| Keywords: |
| Climate change, MLP, RCP8.5, Rangeland, Damavand, Iran |
| Status : Conditional Accept (Poster) |
