| Statistical analysis of earthquake precursors, based on Bayesian theory |
| Paper ID : 1060-SMPR |
| Authors: |
|
Rasool Mazloom *1, Saeid Farzaneh2 1UNIVERSITY OF TEHRAN 2School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran |
| Abstract: |
| The modern methods to predict earthquakes are based on the complex analyses of the spatial and temporal earthquake precursors. In order to make accurate prediction, it is required that various prediction methods be utilized simultaneously. Despite the progress made, must be confessed that nature of this earthquake precursors are that way all of events don’t exist and cannot opine with a focus on an earthquake precursor about occurrence or non-occurrence in a specific area or specific time zone. But whatever the number of precursors before occurrence of earthquake are too much, more confidently estimate parameters of earthquakes. In this research, we used two Method, for our calculations, 1) SPSS software for survey correlation of different data for 66 events that had more information such as Strike, Dip, Depth, Magnitude and Rake regarding to events or earthquakes. 2) Use of Bayes theory, with using of Bayesian theory and calculate of probability of events from the point of the categorical statistics and check the answers, statistical calculations display that for Reverse faults, using of Ionosphere & EM precursors gives the best result and for strike – slip fault, using of EM and Radon precursors gives the best result. Our results show for Reverse faults, the Ionosphere and EM precursors and for strike – slip fault, the EM and Radon precursors gives the best result for the earthquake precursors. |
| Keywords: |
| Anomaly detection, Earthquake precursors, Ionosphere, Bayesian theorem. |
| Status : Conditional Accept (Poster) |
